FX Trading Ideas for the Week | Oct 15-19, 2018

By Aiza Belle | 16 October 2018 | | Share:

Right after having another negotiation regarding Brexit and Italian Summit, comes the EU-Asia Summit. A strategic move against the stronger USD? Maybe.

Before you proceed, make sure to read and understand this Disclaimer here and TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

AUD - Wait

Though COT report still shows non-commercial net position as Short, it's dwindling down because AUD pairs are already mostly oversold in the monthly chart. Possible to rally soon, unless issue about trade tensions between US and China worsen especially when the latter is pressed with currency manipulation. If news about China isn't good, AUD might continue to be oversold until the end of October especially since it has already lost its previous carry trade appeal.

AUDCAD - Wait bounce up near 0.918 - 0.92 (oversold); if it breaks past 0.90 monthly support, next support is at 0.85

AUDCHF - Wait near 0.705 - 0.71

AUDJPY - Buy past 80.5; Sell below 79.5

AUDNZD - Wait near 1.083 if bounce up or continue down to 1.076

AUDUSD - Wait near 0.71

EURAUD - Wait and maybe sell up to 1.60

GBPAUD - Wait near 1.84, might sell up to 1.8277 - 1.8325

CAD - Wait

Might continue to go ranging this week despite recent NAFTA deal because Oil might either touch-base 80 before plunging down to 60, or start reversing now.

WTI CRUDE OIL Bearish Bat W1 by Pikan001 on TradingView.com

CADCHF - Wait confirmation, then buy up to 0.771 maybe

CADJPY - Wait confirmation, then buy up to 87.5

EURCAD - Wait confirmation, then sell up to 1.485 - 1.486

GBPCAD - Wait confirmation, then sell up to 1.686

NZDCAD - Wait confirmation, then sell up to 0.84

USDCAD - Wait near 1.295

AUDCAD - Wait bounce up near 0.918 - 0.92 (oversold); if it breaks past 0.90 monthly support, next support is at 0.85

CHF - Slight short bias

Despite recent equity sell-off, COT report still shows some bearish bias among non-commercial traders in CHF which is considered safe haven/risk-off like JPY. Need to be careful from getting whipsawed.

CHFJPY - Wait and maybe sell up to 110-112

EURCHF - Wait for confirmation, then sell up to 1.138 - 1.14

GBPCHF - Wait and maybe sell up to 1.295

NZDCHF - Wait for confirmation, then buy up to 0.66 - 0.665

USDCHF - Wait for confirmation, then buy up  1.00

AUDCHF - Wait near 0.705 - 0.71

CADCHF - Wait confirmation, then buy up to 0.771 maybe

EUR - Strong short bias

With the issue regarding Italian Budget and more likelihood of lack of agreement/non-resolution, EUR will continue to be bearish this week. Will have to be careful though and best to trade after the EU Economic Summit.

EURGBP - Wait near 0.875

EURJPY - Wait near 130

EURNZD - Wait for confirmation, then sell soon up to 1.74

EURUSD - Wait for confirmation, then sell soon up to 1.15

EURAUD - Wait and maybe sell up to 1.60

EURCAD - Wait confirmation, then sell up to 1.485 - 1.486

EURCHF - Wait for confirmation, then sell up to 1.138 - 1.14

GBP - Wait

Pending outcome of another Brexit deal this week.

GBPJPY - Wait near 148

GBPNZD - Wait near 2.00

GBPUSD - Wait confirmation, then sell up to 1.305 - 1.307

EURGBP - Wait near 0.875

GBPAUD - Wait near 1.84, might sell up to 1.8277 - 1.8325

GBPCAD - Wait confirmation, then sell up to 1.686

GBPCHF - Wait and maybe sell up to 1.295

NZD - Slightly bullish bias from oversold rally

NZD already oversold in the monthly chart, NZ Government posting a larger than expected budget surplus, and recent better than forecasted CPI all support a bullish bias for this currency at least in the short-run.

NZDJPY - Wait for confirmation, then buy up to 75

NZDUSD - Wait for confirmation, then buy up to 0.675

AUDNZD - Wait near 1.083 if bounce up or continue down to 1.076

EURNZD - Wait for confirmation, then sell soon up to 1.74

GBPNZD - Wait near 2.00

NZDCAD - Wait confirmation, then sell up to 0.84

NZDCHF - Wait for confirmation, then buy up  0.66 - 0.665

JPY - Wait

Though JPY is backed by strong economic figures, once equities recover this week or at least continue to rally, the short bias for this currency will continue.

AUDJPY - Buy past 80.5; Sell below 79.5

CADJPY - Wait confirmation, then buy up to 87.5

CHFJPY - Wait and maybe sell up to 110-112

EURJPY - Wait near 130

GBPJPY - Wait near 148

NZDJPY - Wait for confirmation, then buy up to 75

USDJPY - Wait for confirmation, then sell up to 111 - 111.5

USD - Wait

Despite overall bullish bias among non-commercial traders, USD is slightly bearish in the short-term

AUDUSD - Wait near 0.71

EURUSD - Wait for confirmation, then sell soon up to 1.15

GBPUSD - Wait confirmation, then sell up to 1.305 - 1.307

NZDUSD - Wait for confirmation, then buy up to 0.675

USDCAD - Wait near 1.295

USDCHF - Wait for confirmation, then buy up  1.00

USDJPY - Wait for confirmation, then sell up to 111 - 111.5

XAUUSD - Wait for confirmation, then sell up to 1210

XAGUSD - Buy up to 15 maybe

XTIUSD - Sell up to 70 maybe

USDZAR - Wait for confirmation, then sell up to 13 - 13.5

USDMXN - Wait for confirmation, then sell up to 18.5

Feature photo from Matt H. of Unsplash.