FX Trading Ideas for the Week | Oct 22-26, 2018

By Aiza Belle | 22 October 2018 | | Share:

Taking advantage of the first 3 days I can (relatively safely) trade this week and lesser risk of getting whipsawed.

Before you proceed, make sure to read and understand this Disclaimer here and TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

AUD - Wait

Though AUD for the most part is already oversold, high possibility for majority of its currency to simply consolidate this week and go on a tighter range instead of confirming a new trend even if the US refrained from calling China a currency manipulator last Friday. Developments regarding the Chinese market will continue to affect AUD (even more than its recent geopolitical news).

AUDCAD - Wait for sell confirmation and consolidation to 0.92; Then bounce up near 0.918 - 0.92 (oversold); if it breaks past 0.90 monthly support, next support is at 0.85

AUDCHF - Wait for breakout from 0.706 - 0.711 range

AUDJPY - Wait bullish confirmation past 81

AUDNZD - Wait near 1.079

AUDUSD - Wait for sell confirmation to 0.70

EURAUD - Wait near 1.61

GBPAUD - Wait near 1.833

CAD - Wait

More likelihood for CAD to go bearish soon if oil reverses down (we'll see on Wednesday) as mentioned in the previous post. Whatever rate hike is planned by BOC which will be announced this Wednesday is already priced in.

CADCHF - Wait near 0.762

CADJPY - Wait near 86.2

EURCAD - Scalp near 1.50

GBPCAD - Wait near 1.70

NZDCAD - Buy up to or past 0.87

USDCAD - Sell confirmation to 1.30 or buy confirmation near 1.32

AUDCAD - Wait for sell confirmation and consolidation to 0.92; Then bounce up near 0.918 - 0.92 (oversold); if it breaks past 0.90 monthly support, next support is at 0.85

CHF - Slight short bias

Given the recent rally in equities and this currency's safe-haven status like the Yen, expecting most of its pair to reflect this (at least short-term) bearishness.

CHFJPY - Wait near 113

EURCHF - Wait near 1.14-1.15

GBPCHF - Wait near 1.30

NZDCHF - Wait to bounce from 0.65 then buy up  to 0.66 - 0.665

USDCHF - Wait near 1.00

AUDCHF - Wait for breakout from 0.706 - 0.711 range

CADCHF - Wait near 0.762

EUR - Short bias

With the Italian Budget issue that persists, and Euro banks in general that need more assistance from the ECB (with the latter more possibly remaining dovish-- but we'll see later this week), I remain  bearish for this currency despite Moody's cutting the Italy's credit rating and boosting EUR's attractiveness a bit last Friday, unless Brexit updates offset that one way or another. I'll be waiting on the sidelines starting on Wednesday to avoid risks coming from upcoming PMI and ECB news.

EURGBP - Buy up to 0.89

EURJPY - Wait near 130

EURNZD - Wait sell confirmation up to 1.70-1.71

EURUSD - Wait near 1.15

EURAUD - Wait near 1.61

EURCAD - Scalp near 1.50

EURCHF - Wait near 1.14-1.15

GBP - Wait

Hopes are up after new developments in Brexit (which may or may not boost the Euro). Even with that said, I opt to wait for now in the sidelines, unless a pair (or two) has gained some momentum and clear directional bias based on other currencies' strength/weakness.

GBPJPY - Scalp up to 147-150

GBPNZD - Sell up to near 1.96

GBPUSD - Wait near 1.30

EURGBP - Buy up to 0.89

GBPAUD - Wait near 1.833

GBPCAD - Wait near 1.70

GBPCHF - Wait near 1.30

NZD - Wait

After the recent bullish rally from it being oversold like the AUD and also other factors mentioned previously, need to wait for some catalyst that will push it further on the upside and recover from 2015/2016 lows (i.e. NZD Trade Balance). Else, there's more likelihood that NZD pairs will either start to go ranging, or simply driven by other currencies' momentum.

NZDJPY - Buy up to 74.5-75

NZDUSD - Wait near 0.65

AUDNZD - Wait near 1.079

EURNZD - Wait sell confirmation up to 1.70-1.71

GBPNZD - Sell up to near 1.96

NZDCAD - Buy up to or past 0.87

NZDCHF - Wait to bounce from 0.65 then buy up  to 0.66 - 0.665

JPY - Slight short bias

Because of recent equity rally, JPY being a safe haven asset means possible bearish bias for this currency this week especially with USD Index gaining bullish momentum again. However, I'll most likely wait for more USD developments later this week, and avoid risks coming from USD starting on Thursday.

USDJPY - Buy up to 114-114.5

AUDJPY - Wait bullish confirmation past 81

CADJPY - Wait near 86.2

CHFJPY - Wait near 113

EURJPY - Wait near 130

GBPJPY - Scalp up to 147-150

NZDJPY - Buy up to 74.5-75

USD - Wait

COT continues to show non-commercial traders having bullish bias for USD, however I'll most likely trade USD pairs between now and Wednesday, and simply wait on the sidelines during the later part of this week.

AUDUSD - Wait for sell confirmation to 0.70

EURUSD - Wait near 1.15

GBPUSD - Wait near 1.30

NZDUSD - Wait near 0.65

USDCAD - Sell confirmation to 1.30 or buy confirmation near 1.32

USDCHF - Wait near 1.00

USDJPY - Buy up to 114-114.5

XAUUSD - Wait for break past 1221 or bounce up

XAGUSD - Wait near 14.5

XTIUSD - Sell up to 65

USDZAR - Sell up to 14 - 14.10

USDMXN - Wait for possible reversal near 19.5

Feature photo from Danis L. of Unsplash.