FX Trading Ideas for the Week | Apr 15 - Apr 19, 2019

By Aiza Belle | 16 April 2019 | | Share:

Holy Week vacay during spring season but there's no vacation for traders :P

Taking Vacation Leaves or VLs is something I miss back when I wasn't trading full-time yet. Technically I can chill and take my own vacation anytime I want. But I've been eaten alive by the Hustle Culture grind, I can pretty much relate every time other entrepreneurs claim that they don't really take day offs unless extremely necessary.



But it's alright. I think if you enjoy what you're doing, it starts not to feel like work anymore. The only reason I want a VL so to speak is to have more time learning Python & machine learning. Already dropped the previous dropshipping business I considered doing before too though since I couldn't find a special niche which isn't too saturated already. But selling online is something I still would like to do especially to support my dad's rice business and as a way to expand my Youtube channels (sell merch! Yass! But instead of shirts, I'm thinking of jewelry maybe-- gives me more excuse to invest in gold too. We'll see.)

Before you proceed, make sure to read and understand this Disclaimer here and TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

I. FX Trading Ideas for the Week

AUD - Sell (short-term)

Though Aussie in general had been recovering lately after positive economic developments from China, the increased risk appetite in the markets which pushed S&P 500 higher may be bad news to metals like gold, and might affect AUD as well. Looking into riding (at least in the short-run) possible consolidation in AUD pairs this week.

AUDCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.95375 then sell with target profit between 0.9410 - 0.948
AUDCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.716 then sell with target profit between 0.708 - 0.71120
AUDJPY - Wait near 0.79845
AUDNZD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.05625 then sell with target profit @1.046
AUDUSD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.7135 then sell with target profit @ 0.71
EURAUD - Wait near 1.585
GBPAUD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.8365 then buy with target profit @1.85

CAD - Wait

Oil (XTIUSD) had been moving within the 62-65 range lately, which also made CAD pairs do the same. Need to wait for further confirmation-- either oil will consolidate further down to 60-61 or suddenly break out to 70. Need to keep an eye on that.

CADCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.7475 then sell with target profit near 0.745
CADJPY - Wait near 83.6
EURCAD - Wait near 1.515
GBPCAD - Wait near 1.755
NZDCAD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.90731 then buy with target profit between 0.91155 - 0.915
USDCAD - Wait near 1.3395
AUDCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.95375 then sell with target profit between 0.9410 - 0.948

CHF - Wait

Despite the markets now seemingly gaining more and more risk appetite, until I see S&P 500 breaking out the 3000 level, I'll continue being extra careful especially I'm seeing a typical trade trap in most assets now-- not just S&P 500, but also oil, USD Index, gold etc. There's very little room to confirm an official trend because markets can easily reverse its momentum anytime (something that will most likely happen between now and November) so it's best to wait, or at least just ride short-term scalping or day trading opportunities.

CHFJPY - Wait near 111.5
EURCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.13355 then sell with target profit near 1.12637
GBPCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.31285 then sell with target profit near 1.3075
NZDCHF - Wait near 0.68
USDCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.002 then sell with target profit between 0.99 - 0.995
AUDCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.716 then sell with target profit between 0.708 - 0.71120
CADCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.7475 then sell with target profit near 0.745

EUR - Wait

As mentioned last week, I'm still bullish on EUR overall. However, I think it's pretty oversold now, but will wait for confirmed consolidation before shorting so I won't get burned again like last week lol.

EURGBP - Wait near 0.8635
EURJPY - Wait for bearish confirmation past 126.3  then sell with target profit near 125.5
EURNZD - Sell with target profit near 1.654
EURUSD - Wait near 1.131
EURAUD - Wait near 1.585
EURCAD - Wait near 1.515
EURCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.13355 then sell with target profit near 1.12637

GBP - Sell 

Overall I'm still bearish on the pound but with the recent extension, GBP is most likely to continue having bullish momentum, albeit a little overbought already. Best to wait for confirmation, or at least for GBP pairs to reach the resistance part/top part of my monthly seasonality forecast before shorting them again.

GBPJPY - Wait for bearish confirmation past 146.258 then sell with target profit @145.550
GBPNZD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.928 then sell with target profit near 1.908
GBPUSD - Wait near 1.308
EURGBP - Wait near 0.8635
GBPAUD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1.8365 then buy with target profit @1.85
GBPCAD - Wait near 1.755
GBPCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.31285 then sell with target profit near 1.3075

NZD - Buy

Despite the sudden dovish sentiment of RBNZ, macroeconomic-wise the Kiwi continues to have strong macroeconomic fundamentals and pretty much the most underrated currency. The "rumored" rate cut by RBNZ next month is already priced in. Best to wait for prices to bottom though, then will certainly go swing and long on its pairs soon.

NZDJPY - Wait near 75.6
NZDUSD - Wait near 0.6775
AUDNZD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.05625 then sell with target profit @1.046
EURNZD - Sell with target profit near 1.654
GBPNZD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.928 then sell with target profit near 1.908
NZDCAD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.90731 then buy with target profit between 0.91155 - 0.915
NZDCHF - Wait near 0.68

JPY - Wait

Getting ready for a sudden drop in S&P 500 if it doesn't break out the 3000 level. The drop in equities will be bullish for JPY and something really nice to trade especially JPY have been a little oversold now. Best to wait in the sidelines first because again, trading traps are rampant now. If S&P 500 continues to rise and market sentiment becomes risk-on, then JPY will continue its current bearish trajectory.

USDJPY - Wait for bearish confirmation past 111.75 then sell with target profit @111.145
AUDJPY - Wait near 0.79845
CADJPY - Wait near 83.6
CHFJPY - Wait near 111.5
EURJPY - Wait for bearish confirmation past 126.3  then sell with target profit near 125.5
GBPJPY - Wait for bearish confirmation past 146.258 then sell with target profit @145.550
NZDJPY - Wait near 75.6

USD - Wait

Either USD Index will rise to 97.38 or drop down to 95 soon. I have a feeling USD will continue squeezing in that tighter range until summer begins-- which by then, might drop down like S&P 500, but that's just a personal prediction which may or may not come true, we'll see.

AUDUSD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.7135 then sell with target profit @ 0.71
EURUSD - Wait near 1.131
GBPUSD - Wait near 1.308
NZDUSD - Wait near 0.6775
USDCAD - Wait near 1.3395
USDCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.002 then sell with target profit between 0.99 - 0.995
USDJPY - Wait for bearish confirmation past 111.75 then sell with target profit @111.145
XAUUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 1291 then buy with target profit near 1304
XAGUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 15 then buy with target profit between 15.25 - 15.35
XTIUSD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 63 then sell with target profit near 61
USDZAR - Wait near 14.045
USDMXN - Wait for bullish confirmation past 18.95455, then buy with target profit near 19.2

Feature image by Anders J. of Unsplash