FX Trading Ideas for the Week | Dec 03 - 07, 2018

By Aiza Belle | 04 December 2018 | | Share:

Officially welcoming December by playing catch up (figuratively and literally).



The Big Boys woke from the drunken G20 stupor and finally decided to touch the price levels they should have ideally touched already by end of November. Also I'm late because I decided to sleep while the markets go cray, and also play some simulator games instead (i.e. Sims 4, The Guild & Don't Starve-- hooray lol).

Before you proceed, make sure to read and understand this Disclaimer here and TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

AUD - Wait/Sell (short-term)

Most AUD pairs have reached or near their resistance levels. Will continue to wait in the sidelines for this week or at least after its Trade Balance news by Thursday. RBA retained its current rate as expected, while the trade tensions between US and China is currently still being negotiated, with China disturbingly painting a different translation of the truce. With the recent falling house prices and credit crunch mentioned in the previous post, AUD is most likely to go bearish at least in the short-run.

AUDCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.97 then sell up to 0.96

AUDCHF - Wait near 0.73320

AUDJPY - Wait near 83

AUDNZD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.0575 then sell up to 1.05

AUDUSD - Wait near 0.74

EURAUD - Wait near 1.54

GBPAUD - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.72 then sell up to 1.70

CAD - Wait

Still waiting for the final outcome of the OPEC meeting later this week, whether the oil production cut planned earlier will happen or not. The oil experienced a rally recently after the 90-day truce between US and China. Though the BoC is also rumored to hike rate soon, I remain on waiting mode for its pairs this week until all the high risk news have been delivered by Friday.

CADCHF - Wait near 0.75

CADJPY - Sell up to 84.65 - 85 or wait for price to bounce up from that level

EURCAD - Wait near 1.50

GBPCAD - Wait for bounce up from 1.65 then buy up to 1.70

NZDCAD - Wait for bounce down from 0.92082 then sell up to 0.90429

USDCAD - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.315 then continue selling up to near 1.30

AUDCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.97 then sell up to 0.96

CHF - Buy

Though the equities enjoyed a recent rally right after the US-China truce, the big bad elephant is in the room. I don't wanna ride the naysayers and perennial bears, but I can't avoid seeing the pattern among metals, cryptocurrencies and stocks-- the stocks being the last "casualty" of central banks among the three. With that said, until a bullish trend in equities is confirmed, I continue to be bullish on CHF (and eventually on JPY also), especially with its seasonality supporting my bullish bias for CHF as well.

CHFJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 114.5 then buy up to 116.3, else sell up to 112

EURCHF - Wait near 1.135

GBPCHF - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.265 then sell up to 1.24761 - 1.25

NZDCHF - Wait for bullish continuation past 0.69320 then buy up to 0.70

USDCHF - Wait near 1.00, or sell up to 0.985

AUDCHF - Wait near 0.73320

CADCHF - Wait near 0.75

EUR - Wait

With EUR pairs mostly on oversold levels, it's highly likely for them to rally this week but I'll wait in the sidelines until after ECB Draghi's speech on Wednesday. With the Brexit issue finally dealt with, the Italian budget and next Fed rate hike will become the next focus for EUR.

EURGBP - Wait for bullish continuation past 0.895 then buy up to 0.905 - 0.91

EURJPY - Wait near 128

EURNZD - Continue selling up to 1.61833 or wait for bounce up from that level then buy up to 1.66

EURUSD - Wait for bounce up from 1.13 or bearish confirmation past 1.12

EURAUD - Wait near 1.54

EURCAD - Wait near 1.50

EURCHF - Wait near 1.135

GBP - Sell

As mentioned in its seasonality, as well as the political tension between PM May and anti-Brexiters in the UK, I continue to be bearish on GBP overall, at least until the official Brexit on March 2019. (Also, glad to see that I'm not the only one who thinks so, considering a bunch of pound hype men I've seen recently in FF. I guess, both parties can be right, it just depends on what time frame we're talking about.)

GBPJPY - Wait for bearish continuation past 142.815 then sell up to 140.150

GBPNZD - Continue selling up to 1.80 or wait to bounce up from that level and buy up to 1.85

GBPUSD - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.265 then sell up to 1.20559, else buy up to 1.30

EURGBP - Wait for bullish continuation past 0.895 then buy up to 0.905 - 0.91

GBPAUD - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.72 then sell up to 1.70

GBPCAD - Wait for bounce up from 1.65 then buy up to 1.70

GBPCHF - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.265 then sell up to 1.24761 - 1.25

NZD - Buy

The Kiwi's economy is still doing ok, with RBNZ now easing restrictions in home mortgages (despite foreseeing continued house price increase), and allowing more low-deposit borrowers. RBNZ is still expected not to rate hikes anytime soon, and most likely simply retain its current rate. Overall, I continue to still be bullish for NZD.

NZDJPY - Wait for bullish continuation past 78.228 then buy up to 80

NZDUSD - Continue buying up to 0.70 - 0.70345

AUDNZD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.0575 then sell up to 1.05

EURNZD - Continue selling up to 1.61833 or wait for bounce up from that level then buy up to 1.66

GBPNZD - Continue selling up to 1.80 or wait to bounce up from that level and buy up to 1.85

NZDCAD - Wait for bounce down from 0.92082 then sell up to 0.90429

NZDCHF - Wait for bullish continuation past 0.69320 then buy up to 0.70

JPY - Wait

Unlike CHF, JPY is a mixed bag. Will continue to wait in the sidelines until I get further confirmation in equities and other currencies.

USDJPY - Wait near 112.5

AUDJPY - Wait near 83

CADJPY - Sell up to 84.65 - 85 or wait for price to bounce up from that level

CHFJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 114.5 then buy up to 116.3, else sell up to 112

EURJPY - Wait near 128

GBPJPY - Wait for bearish continuation past 142.815 then sell up to 140.150

NZDJPY - Wait for bullish continuation past 78.228 then buy up to 80

USD - Sell

As mentioned in the previous post, USD overall is already overbought. With the next Fed rate hike already priced in, and the markets already digested the recent US-China truce, USD is more likely to consolidate next (if not go bearish), especially with the rumored dovishness of the Fed and less rate hikes by 2019. This makes me go bullish on gold though, especially my own filters are all glowing green.

AUDUSD - Wait near 0.74

EURUSD - Wait for bounce up from 1.13 or bearish confirmation past 1.12

GBPUSD - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.265 then sell up to 1.20559, else buy up to 1.30

NZDUSD - Continue buying up to 0.70 - 0.70345

USDCAD - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.315 then continue selling up to near 1.30

USDCHF - Wait near 1.00, or sell up to 0.985

USDJPY - Wait near 112.5

XAUUSD - Wait for bullish continuation past 1240 then buy up to 1270 - 1273

XAGUSD - Buy past 14.5 up to 15

XTIUSD - Buy up to 56.5

USDZAR - Sell up to 13 - 13.22

USDMXN - Wait for bearish confirmation past 20.40 then sell again until 20

Feature photo by Jess B. of Unsplash