FX Trading Ideas for the Week | Nov 26 - 30, 2018

By Aiza Belle | 27 November 2018 | | Share:

Being sneaky has tremendous advantages. It doesn't automatically mean being shady though lol.

Before you proceed, make sure to read and understand this Disclaimer here and TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

AUD - Wait

Despite the overall positive economic data in AU, there has been news about recent housing instability and correction in its financial market. It is uncertain whether RBA will hike rates like the Fed eventually or not at all between now and next year, however it does slowly starting to push its economy to rely more on electronic payments instead of using cash.

AUDCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.95855 and sell up to 0.95

AUDCHF - Wait for bullish continuation past 0.72575 then buy up to 0.73100

AUDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 83 then buy up to 84.5 - 85

AUDNZD - Wait near 1.0655

AUDUSD - Wait near 0.73

EURAUD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.563 then sell up to 1.53 - 1.55

GBPAUD - Wait near 1.75

CAD - Wait

Oil had now dropped further down to 50 (which is also a good psychological level). Will await the outcome of G20 and OPEC meeting, and will start trading oil and CAD pairs depending by next week. There have also been "rumors" that the planned oil production cut by Russia and Saudi Arabia on December 6 might not push through at all -- either as a sneaky attempt to bankrupt their US oil rivals or to simply not allow them to get their market share (because regardless of what OPEC agrees upon, US will keep pumping oil). Goldman believes otherwise. We'll see.

CADCHF - Wait near 0.755

CADJPY - Buy past 86 up to 87

EURCAD - Wait near 1.50

GBPCAD - Wait for bounce near 1.683 - 1.685 and buy up to 1.70

NZDCAD - Wait near 0.90

USDCAD - Sell past 1.32351 up to 1.30500

AUDCAD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.95855 and sell up to 0.95

CHF - Buy

For now, the market seems to be weighing on which direction stocks will actually go. Since I still have a bearish bias on global equities overall, I continue to be bullish on CHF and watching its pairs closely to position my entries especially when S&P 500 finally breaks its 2600 level.

CHFJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 113.879 then buy up to 114.5 - 115

EURCHF - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.130 then sell up to 1.120

GBPCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.26876 and sell up to 1.25 - 1.26

NZDCHF - Wait for bullish continuation past 0.682 then buy up to 0.69 - 0.69462

USDCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.99 then sell up to 0.975 - 0.98

AUDCHF - Wait for bullish continuation past 0.72575 then buy up to 0.73100

CADCHF - Wait near 0.755

EUR - Sell

The disappointing PMI news last week and dovish tone of ECB President Draghi yesterday continue to push EUR down. I'm bearish in almost all EUR pairs except for EURJPY.

EURGBP - Wait near 0.88500

EURJPY - Buy past 129.2 up to 130 - 130.5

EURNZD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.655 then sell up to 1.63

EURUSD - Wait near 1.13144

EURAUD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.563 then sell up to 1.53 - 1.55

EURCAD - Wait near 1.50

EURCHF - Wait for bearish continuation past 1.130 then sell up to 1.120

GBP - Wait

Despite the Brexit agreement between UK and EU last Sunday, GBP is most likely to continue fluctuating especially because of some uncertainty on how UK's parliament will deal about it -- whether they'll accept May and EU's decision or not by December. There's also the 21-month transition phase to follow Brexit after March 2019 where UK is barred from making any new international trading policies.

GBPJPY - Buy past 146 up to 147.5 up to 149.5

GBPNZD - Sell up to 1.86

GBPUSD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.27 then sell up to 1.26 - 1.262

EURGBP - Wait near 0.88500

GBPAUD - Wait near 1.75

GBPCAD - Wait for bounce near 1.683 - 1.685 and buy up to 1.70

GBPCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.26876 and sell up to 1.25 - 1.26

NZD - Wait

Though I continue to be bullish overall on NZD, there are upcoming high impact news this week so most likely I'll wait in the sidelines until later part of Wednesday after ANZ Business Confidence and RBNZ's financial stability news soon. NZD's Trade Balance was reported to be lower than the forecast amount earlier, however it's still higher than the previous period.

NZDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 77.745 and buy up to 78.5 - 78729

NZDUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.68302 then buy up to 0.69500

AUDNZD - Wait near 1.0655

EURNZD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.655 then sell up to 1.63

GBPNZD - Sell up to 1.86

NZDCAD - Wait near 0.90

NZDCHF - Wait for bullish continuation past 0.682 then buy up to 0.69 - 0.69462

JPY - Sell

Despite the continued slump in equities, unlike CHF, JPY failed to gain traction and instead got weaker because it's losing appeal as the safe haven currency while Fed continues to be hawkish, and the market is just beginning to price in another rate hike this December.

USDJPY - Wait near 114

AUDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 83 then buy up to 84.5 - 85

CADJPY - Buy past 86 up to 87

CHFJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 113.879 then buy up to 114.5 - 115

EURJPY - Buy past 129.2 up to 130 - 130.5

GBPJPY - Buy past 146 up to 147.5 up to 149.5

NZDJPY - Wait for bullish confirmation past 77.745 and buy up to 78.5 - 78729

USD - Wait

Though USD pairs look already overbought and DXY is starting to show market uncertainty by ranging between 96-98, USD overall still has room to go up (though it's uncertain whether it can reach 100 by the end of this year or now),  as long as the market is still pricing in the possible December rate hike despite Trump voicing his concerns against it. There's some uncertainty whether the Fed will continue its rate hike by 2019 though, so USD is a mixed bag for now.

AUDUSD - Wait near 0.73

EURUSD - Wait near 1.13144

GBPUSD - Wait for bearish confirmation past 1.27 then sell up to 1.26 - 1.262

NZDUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 0.68302 then buy up to 0.69500

USDCAD - Sell past 1.32351 up to 1.30500

USDCHF - Wait for bearish confirmation past 0.99 then sell up to 0.975 - 0.98

USDJPY - Wait near 114

XAUUSD - Wait for bullish continuation past 1230.265 and buy up to 1240

XAGUSD - Wait for bullish confirmation past 14.5 and buy up to 14.8 - 15

XTIUSD - Wait near 50

USDZAR - Wait for bearish continuation past 13.70 then sell up to near 13 - 13.30

USDMXN - Wait for bearish confirmation past 20.34 then sell up to 20 - 20.15

Video version with Charts (basis for S/R and target numbers above):

Feature post image by G. Giqueauax of Unsplash.